Friday, May 23, 2008

Fund of Funds & Poll of Polls

Long long ago unsophisticated investors were guided to invest in mutual funds. They were told that since they did not have either the expertise or the time to select individual stocks, they should leave it to a professional to manage their stock investment. In those days selecting a fund was easy. You had about 20-25 odd funds and you just had to pick a few of them to invest in and you were done. Then thousands of funds bloomed (OK I exaggerate , only hundreds of funds bloomed) and each had varying risks and return profile. Selecting which fund to invest in became a nightmare. The unsophisticated investor was then guided to a fund of funds ( i.e a mutual fund that would select the best funds to invest in, and these selected funds would in turn invest in individual stocks etc ).

The same seems to be playing out in the exit poll field. The exit polls for Karnataka has thrown up so many possibilities, that one probably needs a poll of these polls to decide which way the election results would go. I am sure some astute pollster will come up with this idea and hopefully exit polls can go back to being one number that is at least expected to be right in theory if not in practice.

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